By Nworisa Michael
Nigerian motorists may soon experience relief at the pump as global crude oil prices recorded a sharp decline, raising expectations of a downward adjustment in petrol prices across the country.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, dropped by more than 15 percent to below $95 per barrel on Wednesday, following geopolitical developments in the Middle East involving Donald Trump and Iran.
The price slump came after Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, a move that triggered immediate reactions across global energy markets. Analysts say the development has eased supply fears, prompting investors to sell off oil.
By mid-afternoon Nigerian time, Brent crude futures had fallen by $18.27, or 15.72 percent, to $92.26 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped by $20.48, representing an 18.13 percent decline to $92.47.
An analyst at UBS, Giovanni Staunovo, noted that investors are reacting to the de-escalation by offloading oil assets, contributing to the sharp price drop.
The ceasefire announcement followed heightened tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route through which about 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply passes. Trump had earlier issued a warning to Iran, threatening significant consequences if the waterway was not reopened.
In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, indicated that Tehran would halt its attacks provided strikes against the country ceased, adding that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz could be guaranteed within the two-week window.
Energy analysts say the easing of tensions could gradually release between 10 and 13 million barrels of crude oil previously stranded due to the conflict. However, they caution that the sustainability of the price drop depends on whether the temporary ceasefire evolves into a lasting peace agreement.
The development is also expected to impact global gas markets. According to industry expert Tom Marzec-Manser of Wood Mackenzie, the ceasefire could allow trapped liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments in the Gulf to resume movement, offering some relief to global supply chains.
Despite this, uncertainty remains over whether major facilities such as Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG site will fully resume operations during the ceasefire period. Analysts estimate that a complete restart of operations could take several months.
For Nigeria, the implications are significant. The country’s deregulated fuel market means domestic petrol prices are closely tied to global crude oil trends.
In recent months, the Dangote Refinery has adjusted petrol prices multiple times, reflecting volatility in international oil markets. Between January and March 2026, the refinery revised its ex-depot price nine times, pushing rates from N699 to about N1,200 per litre.
At the peak of the recent surge, petrol prices rose as high as N1,275 per litre at the depot, with retail prices in cities like Abuja reaching between N1,290 and N1,350 per litre.
However, early signs of relief have begun to emerge. Retail outlets operated by NNPC Limited in Abuja have already reduced pump prices to N1,295 per litre from N1,361, while some stations in Lagos have also confirmed slight price cuts.
Experts note that Nigeria’s fuel pricing system, fully deregulated since the removal of subsidy in 2023, now responds quickly to global oil price movements—both upward and downward. While this allows consumers to benefit from price drops, it also exposes them to volatility.
However, analysts warn that the current relief may be temporary. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is limited to two weeks, and any breakdown in negotiations could trigger another surge in oil prices.
Additionally, supply challenges persist locally. The Dangote Refinery is reportedly facing a crude supply shortfall estimated at 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, which could affect its ability to sustain lower fuel prices.
Although Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose to $50.45 billion in February 2026—the highest level in over a decade—economists say this macroeconomic buffer offers limited direct relief to consumers if global oil prices rebound.
As the situation unfolds, motorists and businesses across Nigeria are closely watching developments, hopeful that the current downturn in global oil prices will translate into sustained reductions in petrol costs.
Lower Petrol Prices Loom in Nigeria as Global Oil Prices Plunge
By Oladehinde Oladipo | April 9, 2026
Nigerian motorists may soon experience relief at the pump as global crude oil prices recorded a sharp decline, raising expectations of a downward adjustment in petrol prices across the country.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, dropped by more than 15 percent to below $95 per barrel on Wednesday, following geopolitical developments in the Middle East involving Donald Trump and Iran.
The price slump came after Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, a move that triggered immediate reactions across global energy markets. Analysts say the development has eased supply fears, prompting investors to sell off oil.
By mid-afternoon Nigerian time, Brent crude futures had fallen by $18.27, or 15.72 percent, to $92.26 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped by $20.48, representing an 18.13 percent decline to $92.47.
An analyst at UBS, Giovanni Staunovo, noted that investors are reacting to the de-escalation by offloading oil assets, contributing to the sharp price drop.
The ceasefire announcement followed heightened tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route through which about 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply passes. Trump had earlier issued a warning to Iran, threatening significant consequences if the waterway was not reopened.
In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, indicated that Tehran would halt its attacks provided strikes against the country ceased, adding that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz could be guaranteed within the two-week window.
Energy analysts say the easing of tensions could gradually release between 10 and 13 million barrels of crude oil previously stranded due to the conflict. However, they caution that the sustainability of the price drop depends on whether the temporary ceasefire evolves into a lasting peace agreement.
The development is also expected to impact global gas markets. According to industry expert Tom Marzec-Manser of Wood Mackenzie, the ceasefire could allow trapped liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments in the Gulf to resume movement, offering some relief to global supply chains.
Despite this, uncertainty remains over whether major facilities such as Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG site will fully resume operations during the ceasefire period. Analysts estimate that a complete restart of operations could take several months.
For Nigeria, the implications are significant. The country’s deregulated fuel market means domestic petrol prices are closely tied to global crude oil trends.
In recent months, the Dangote Refinery has adjusted petrol prices multiple times, reflecting volatility in international oil markets. Between January and March 2026, the refinery revised its ex-depot price nine times, pushing rates from N699 to about N1,200 per litre.
At the peak of the recent surge, petrol prices rose as high as N1,275 per litre at the depot, with retail prices in cities like Abuja reaching between N1,290 and N1,350 per litre.
However, early signs of relief have begun to emerge. Retail outlets operated by NNPC Limited in Abuja have already reduced pump prices to N1,295 per litre from N1,361, while some stations in Lagos have also confirmed slight price cuts.
Experts note that Nigeria’s fuel pricing system, fully deregulated since the removal of subsidy in 2023, now responds quickly to global oil price movements both upward and downward. While this allows consumers to benefit from price drops, it also exposes them to volatility.
However, analysts warn that the current relief may be temporary. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is limited to two weeks, and any breakdown in negotiations could trigger another surge in oil prices.
Additionally, supply challenges persist locally. The Dangote Refinery is reportedly facing a crude supply shortfall estimated at 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, which could affect its ability to sustain lower fuel prices.
Although Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose to $50.45 billion in February 2026 the highest level in over a decade economists say this macroeconomic buffer offers limited direct relief to consumers if global oil prices rebound.
As the situation unfolds, motorists and businesses across Nigeria are closely watching developments, hopeful that the current downturn in global oil prices will translate into sustained reductions in petrol costs.
